Infant Mortality Rate Rises in Gaza for First Time in Fifty Years

Press Release for Immediate Publication

United Nations Relief and Works Agency, UNRWA

Jerusalem, 8 August 2015: The infant mortality rate in Gaza has risen for the first time in five decades, according to an UNRWA study, and UNRWA’s Health Director says the blockade may be contributing to the trend.

Every five years UNRWA conducts a survey of infant mortality across the region, and the 2013 results were released this week.

I also have the complete scientific paper upon which this breathless claim is made and into which Chris and his team manage to shoe horn a condemnation of Israel in the very first sentence (hint: blockade always means Israel, never Egypt or Hamas).

Full paper:UNRWA Infant mortality paper Gaza journal.pone.0135092

Now the problems.

The whole of Gaza or just the refugees?

The paper repeats over and over they are only talking about “Palestinian Refugees” and people who availed themselves of UNRWA health clinics. This is not the whole population of Gaza. Typical language from the paper:

We used the same preceding-birth technique as in previous surveys. All multiparous mothers who came to the 22 UNRWA health centres to register their last-born child for immunization were asked if their preceding child was alive or dead.

….

The target population included multiparous mothers with at least two children born alive, who attended one of the 22 UNRWA health centres in Gaza for registration and immunization of their most recently-born child.

The Press Release from Chris Gunness and UNRWA doesn’t make this distinction at all.

Small P-value

This is a technical point to do with statistics and to be honest, it’s confirmed in the next section in clear English. As Judge Dan said (most of this post is based on his observations):

Their p-value for infant mortality is 0.61 and they publish it as a meaningful statistic. What a sham.

And another observation about this p-value from another of my more statistically qualified contacts:

I think you mean large (actually, huge) p-value. p-value is the odds of confirming the hypothesis by chance. So if the p-value is .05 you will get confirmation of your hypothesis by chance 5% of the time.

If you have a p-value above 0.05 it basically means your experiment could just be a fluke. This is mentioned is given in such august reference sites as “Statistics for Dummies”:

A large p-value (> 0.05) indicates weak evidence against the null hypothesis, so you fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Basically if they repeated this “experiment” 61% of the time they’d confirm what they were looking for just by pure chance. They might as well have flipped a coin and reported that. All of this comes from having way too few deaths of children to do this kind of statistics on. That should be something to celebrate right?

The entire survey is based on too small a sample

The scientific paper basically says these results are not enough to draw the conclusion that Chris Gunness and UNRWA are drawing. This is the start of the discussion part of the paper, emphasis is mine:

Discussion

This survey was conducted in 2013 with November 2011 as a reference time. It showed for the first time in five decades that mortality rates had increased among Palestine refugee newborns in Gaza. This finding is worrying and suggests that Gaza is currently not on track to meet the 2015 MDG4 under-five mortality target of 14 per 1000 live births.[18] However, post-neonatal mortality rate declined significantly and the infant mortality rate was only slightly higher. These estimates are based on small numbers of deaths, and the confidence intervals are wide, so the infant mortality rate could in fact be stable or continuing to decline. 

 This entire breathless piece of propaganda (the press release not the paper) is based on asking a group of (often illiterate as the paper points out) women what happened to their last baby and, if it died, how it died. All the data is based on 65 deaths (this time) as opposed to 69 in 2008.

In fact it’s only in the infant mortality rate, and not other important categories, that there was any small rise.

Not published in a big name journal

Just as an additional piece of information, the study is not published in any of the world’s prestigious journals. It’s in something called “PLOS ONE” and according to its twitter bio  “is an international, peer-reviewed, open-access, online publication. Tweets by @mtdohm” which accepts papers for submission over the internet and then, apparently, peer reviews them. Look for the world’s media to totally ignore the source because it matches their predefined agendas.

The bigger picture

The bigger picture is that since 1960 and all through the period of “brutal Israeli occupation” the infant mortality rates plummeted: far fewer babies die now than ever. Israel built some of the first and finest hospitals ever built to serve these populations: Jordan and Egypt barely did anything except leave their Arab brothers living in squalor. The Arab populations in Israel and the disputed territories including those handed back to full control by Palestinians like Gaza, have the lowest infant mortality rates of any general Arab populations in the entire region.

There are numerous other problems that go on in Gaza (and even within Israel’s Arab populations) but to blame the “blockade” in the first sentence and then wrap that ridiculous and unproven claim up in a scientific veneer is just typical of how UNRWA operates. For example, 19 of the 65 deaths talked about in the paper were “congenital anomalies”: this is often associated with poor genetic diversity: marrying first cousins is known to be a big problem in this society. It’s hard to see how a blockade is causing that.

And you can be sure this Press Release will be uncritically reported by Chris’s friends in the media. Look for stories from AP, AFP, Reuters and all the usual suspects. None of them will open and read or quote directly from the scientific paper. None of them will apply any critical thought to this story, 99% of their reporting will be a lazy regurgitation of Chris’s press release with a couple of drop in quotes.

Anti-Israel NGOs feeding worthless science to gullible, lethal journalists. A crackerjack combination for whipping up Jew hatred around the world!

http://www.israellycool.com/2015/08/09/chris-gunness-of-unrwa-is-lying-again-and-the-world-wont-check/

Gaza The muslim brothrhood new terror state

This past week has seen the total collapse of Yassir Arafat’s legacy in the Gaza Strip. Black ski-masked Hamas jihad fighters kneecapped their Palestinian Authority (PA) al-Fatah rivals, paraded half-naked PLO fighters through the streets, or executed them Chicago gangland style with a bullet to the head – often in front of wives and children. A Hamas mob lynched Fatah al-Aqsa Brigades commander Samih Madhoun on Thursday June 14 on camera. The offices of Madhoun’s boss Muhammad Dahlan, once head of PA Preventive Security and the Palestinian National Security Council, were looted and machine-gunned, and a spray-painted graffiti warning was left on the walls reading, “This was the house of the murderer Dahlan that was cleansed by the jihad warriors”.  Jihad has come to Gaza, and the Muslim Brotherhood has taken over their very first Arab country (seewww.davidstent.org “words” February 2006, “Hurtling Through The Fog of War: A Messianic Perspective On The New Hamastan”).

The collapse of Abu Mazen’s PA (formerly the PLO) in Gaza is portentous. U.S. foreign policy has so far placed its eggs in Abu Mazen’s basket, arming his fighters with M-16’s and sending CIA and U.S. Army advisors to train his forces (many of whom are still actively engaging in terror attacks and Qassam missile launchings against Israel). The collapse of the Gaza Strip means the immediate collapse of another sphere of U.S. influence, with echoes of Teheran 1979 and Saigon 1975.

Gaza abhors a vacuum, and the jihadi wave of Hamas has crashed upon the palm-studded sands of Gaza, filling the Strip and lapping at the security fence bordering Israel and Egypt. For the first time in recent Islamist history, a Muslim Brotherhood organization has set up governmental shop within an Arab/Islamic population center. Hamas is an Arabic acronym for “The Islamic Resistance Movement” and its charter proclaims that it “is one of the wings of the Muslim Brotherhood … the largest Islamic Movement in the modern era” (Article Two).

The jihadi organizations which planned and carried out 9/11, the bombings of the US embassies in Africa, the subway and train bombings in London, Madrid and Cologne – these are all Muslim Brotherhood related groups (see the abovementioned article). It is their strategy to set up one Islamist jihadi state after another in the Middle East, until enough momentum is created to launch all-out war against the West and its allies. Jihadi forces are greatly encourage by the past week’s events in Gaza. For them it is a dream come true, and it is a step closer to world jihad. This victory will spur Islamist terror groups on to further attacks on Israel and the West with increased fervor.

“The King is dead! Long live the King!”

The remnants of PLO leadership are in disarray. Some fled by sea to Egypt; others were allowed by Israel to escape to Ramallah. Many others have been murdered. The new rulers of Gaza are Hamas. Effectively, there are now two Palestinian states-in-waiting –  Hamastan (in Gaza), a jihadi state ruled by terrorists bent on destroying Israel and Western civilization; and Fatahland (in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria), bent on using terror to set up an “Islamic-lite” state also bent on destroying Israel. The U.S. and the E.U. have hesitated to support a Hamas-controlled Palestinian Authority. Now they will probably throw their full weight behind Abu Mazen’s relocated “West Bank PA”.

There are approximately 1.4 million Arabs living in Gaza and 2.5 million Arabs living in Judea and Samaria.  At this point Hamas controls 3/8 of all Arabs who are not Israeli citizens, while Abu Mazen’s re-organized PA rules over 5/8 of these Arabs. Gaza has no more Jewish population, while Judea and Samaria may have 190,000 Jewish residents in Jewish cities, towns and settlements.

Political analysts are not sure that Abu Mazen will be able to hold on to power in the West Bank, and are concerned that a radicalized Palestinian street may lead to an Islamist Hamas-controlled leadership also in that area. As far as the Israeli military is concerned, terror attempts are a daily occurrence from both Hamas-led and Abu Mazen-led forces.

It is helpful to remember what the leader of Hamas, Khaled Mashal, ‘prophesied’ on November 25 2006. He said that unless a Palestinian Islamist state is established with in six months, his forces will initiate another Middle East war.  ”We give the international community six months for real political horizons … If our demands are not met, the Palestinian people will close all political files and launch a third intifada.  The conflict will be open and the victory in this conflict will be ours.”

In a recent Jerusalem Post article, AMAN (Israeli Military Intelligence) assessed that Israel is headed toward at least two major military conflicts in 2007 – one against Hamas in Gaza, and the other against Hezbollah in Lebanon (“Weatherman 2007: strong winds of war,” Yaakov Katz, JP, Friday Dec 8 2006)

Years ago Adolf Hitler explained:  “A clever conqueror, will always … impose his demands on the conquered by installments.  A people that makes a voluntary surrender saps its own character and…you can calculate that none of these oppressions …will supply (the conquered) quite enough reason…to resort once more to arms.”

Last year our prophetic brother Bob Jones said that both Israel and the body of Messiah would have a short time of peace until June 2007. At that point, he said, the Lord will start making decisions for Israel. We have reached that point and history is beginning to speed up once again.

Déjà vu all over again

Israelis feel that history is repeating itself with a vengeance. The main architect of the failed Oslo Accords (1993) was Shimon Peres, who signed that agreement on the White House Lawn with Mahmoud al-Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen). Today Abu Mazen is the leader of the PA and Shimon Peres has just been appointed the 9^thPresident of the State of Israel. Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak who oversaw Israel’s sudden retreat from Lebanon (which prepared the way for last summer’s Hezbollah war with Israel) has just been appointed Israeli Minister of Defense. Ariel Sharon, who ordered the retreat and uprooting of all Jews from Gaza, lies comatose in a hospital ward as his enemy Hamas slaughters PLO gunmen and rains Qassam rockets on Israeli farms and cities.

The retreat from Lebanon led to Islamist attacks on the entire north of Israel. The retreat from Gaza has led to a Hamas state on Israel’s borders, as well as rocket attacks on Israel itself. Both of these events occurred during the watch of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. PM Olmert is on his way to Washington this week to discuss with President Bush (among other matters) further withdrawals from Judea and Samaria. The land of Israel is being parceled up in front of our eyes, very similar to the visions of the prophets Zechariah (14:1-2) and Joel (3:1-2) as they described what would happen at the end of days.

Watch your calendar!

I would like to draw your attention to two important dates concerning Israel, the United States and attempts to divide the land of Israel. As documented by William Koenig in his thought-provoking book “Eye To Eye: Facing The Consequences of Dividing Israel” (www.21stcenturypress.com) President George Bush was set to announce a sea-change in U.S. policy on September 24 2001. According to the Washington Post, he had decided to recognize a Palestinian state and push for a partition of the biblical land of Israel, with his top officials completing most of the details to the satisfaction of Saudi Price Bandar bin Sultan on September 10 2001! The terror attack one day later which destroyed the Twin Towers forced a rescheduling of that event, which was postponed until Bush’s Rose Garden speech of June 24 2002 and then further established with the international “Quartet” on April 30 2003 (the “Road Map”).

Five years ago on June 24 2002 President George declared that “the United States of America will support the creation of a Palestinian state whose borders and certain aspects of its sovereignty will be provisional until resolved as part of a final settlement in the Middle East”  (http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/06/20020624-3.html). He also said, “I call on the Palestinian people to elect new leaders, leaders not compromised by terror.”

As of June 2007 we have reached five full years since that declaration. Hamas, an Islamist jihadi terror group, was elected in a democratic election held in Gaza. Gaza’s Palestinians rejected a corrupt PLO and embraced a jihadi Hamas terror state.  In Caroline Glick’s recent article she notes that President Bush believes that his upcoming meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Olmert will be a good time to give an updated assessment of the situation and to push for a Palestinian state. It seems timely and not coincidental that Hamas has chosen the week preceding this meeting to once again reveal the murderous intentions of the Islamist Palestinian leadership, in accordance with the “prophecy” of Hamas leader Khaled Mashal six months ago.

Indeed we live in days of destiny!

From Samson to Samuel – A Call to a Generation! 

A great Christian writer John Milton authored a small work in 1671 called Samson Agonistes (‘Samson in Agony’). He dramatized the biblical account in Judges 16, describing Samson’s agony of being “eyeless in Gaza.” Aldous Huxley borrowed the phrase in 1936, as has a modern Punk Rock band. But the phrase aptly describes some aspects of what Israel is going through in relation to her Islamist enemies in Gaza and the surrounding regions.

Samson suffered blindness as a result of his foolish risk-taking with unfriendly neighbors. He found himself “blind among enemies, O worse than chains.”  He realized that his condition was a direct result of his broken vow to God, as well as his having been betrayed by the person he loved (in this case, Delilah).

In a similar way, successive Israeli governments have taken foolish risks with their country’s security, first in agreeing to a general retreat (Peres and Rabin at Oslo), then in abandoning southern Lebanon to Hezbollah (Barak), and lately in uprooting and disengaging from the Gaza Strip (Sharon and Olmert), abandoning the Strip to Hamas. Our unfriendly neighbors are now causing us great agony of soul and body, and we are confused and uncertain – fogged and blinded as to what we must do.

As a nation we have turned away unthankfully from the gift that the God of Israel handed us 40 years ago in June 1967, when He restored to the Jewish people much of the tribal inheritances of Judah, Ephraim, Manasseh, Gad and Benjamin. We have been all too willing to consider handing these areas over to our sworn enemies, and have even discussed participating in the division of Jerusalem. Our closest allies have nudged and pressured us to stop living and building in these regained lands, and to arm and equip terror forces in the name of a false peace.

Pray with us that Israel (a modern-day Samson) will wake up from his midday stupor and regain his precious eyesight! Pray that the God of Israel will transform His people from Samsons to Samuels, able to speak the word of God prophetically and to move in power in both word and deed (1 Sam. 3:19; 15; Hos.6:5; Ezek.37:9-11).

Pray for President Bush and for Prime Minister Olmert, that God will give them His opinions and heart by revelation, and that He would turn their hearts to do His perfect will (Prov.21:1).

Pray for the Arab believers in Yeshua who live in Gaza – for their safety, provision, courage, discernment and boldness (Eph.6:19-20; Rom.8:35).

In Messiah Yeshua’s love,

Avner Boskey

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